Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 0.000340 0.000382 0.000427 0.000479 0.000539 0.000605 0.000683
2024-12-22 0.000250 0.000305 0.000371 0.000455 0.000560 0.000688 0.000855
2024-12-29 0.000207 0.000269 0.000348 0.000456 0.000602 0.000794 0.001067
2025-01-05 0.000184 0.000252 0.000343 0.000476 0.000665 0.000930 0.001335
2025-01-12 0.000159 0.000226 0.000321 0.000465 0.000683 0.001004 0.001524
2025-01-19 0.000135 0.000199 0.000293 0.000442 0.000676 0.001039 0.001656
2025-01-26 0.000123 0.000188 0.000285 0.000447 0.000712 0.001141 0.001907
2025-02-02 0.000117 0.000184 0.000289 0.000468 0.000776 0.001296 0.002271
2025-02-09 0.000106 0.000172 0.000277 0.000463 0.000795 0.001376 0.002515
2025-02-16 0.000099 0.000164 0.000271 0.000468 0.000830 0.001489 0.002836
2025-02-23 0.000091 0.000154 0.000261 0.000464 0.000847 0.001571 0.003108
2025-03-02 0.000085 0.000147 0.000256 0.000466 0.000877 0.001679 0.003449
2025-03-09 0.000079 0.000140 0.000250 0.000467 0.000908 0.001800 0.003849
2025-03-16 0.000070 0.000128 0.000233 0.000447 0.000893 0.001825 0.004048
2025-03-23 0.000066 0.000122 0.000228 0.000449 0.000925 0.001954 0.004511
2025-03-30 0.000064 0.000121 0.000231 0.000468 0.000995 0.002177 0.005242
2025-04-06 0.000059 0.000113 0.000220 0.000458 0.000999 0.002252 0.005618
2025-04-13 0.000053 0.000103 0.000205 0.000435 0.000972 0.002248 0.005789
2025-04-20 0.000050 0.000100 0.000203 0.000440 0.001009 0.002406 0.006431
2025-04-27 0.000049 0.000100 0.000207 0.000461 0.001089 0.002683 0.007468
2025-05-04 0.000046 0.000095 0.000201 0.000456 0.001104 0.002796 0.008052
2025-05-11 0.000044 0.000093 0.000199 0.000461 0.001144 0.002981 0.008896
2025-05-18 0.000041 0.000088 0.000193 0.000456 0.001159 0.003100 0.009557